shirky.com Clay Shirky's Writings About the Internet
Economics and Culture, Media and Community, Open Source
Why Smart Agents Are A Dumb Idea
 
Smart agents are a dumb idea. Like several of the other undead ideas
floating around (e.g Digital Cash, Videophones), the idea of having
autonomous digital agents that scour the net acting on your behalf seems
so attractive that, despite a string of failures, agents enjoy periodic
resurgances of interest. A new such surge seems to be beginning, with
another round of stories in the press about how autonomous agents
equipped with instructions from you (and your credit card number) are
going to shop for your CDs, buy and sell your stocks, and arrange your
travel plans. The primary thing smart agents seem to have going for them
is the 'cool' factor (as in 'This will work because it would be cool if
it did.') The primary thing they have going against them is that they do
not work and they never will work, and not just because they are
impractical, but because they have the wrong problems in their domain,
and they solve them in the wrong order. 

Smart agents -- web crawling agents as opposed to stored preferences in
a database -- have three things going against them: 

  • Agents' performance degrades with network growth
  • Agents ask people to do what machines are good at (waiting) and machines to do what people are good at (thinking).
  • Agents make the market for information less efficient rather than more These three barriers render the idea of agents impractical for almost all of the duties they are supposedly going to perform. Consider these problems in context; the classic scenario for the mobile agent is the business trip. You have business in Paris (or, more likely, Peoria) and you need a flight, a hotel and a rental car. You instruct your agent about your dates, preferences, and price limits, and it scours the network for you putting together the ideal package based on its interpretatino of your instructions. Once it has secured this package, it makes the purchases on your behalf, and presents you with the completed travel package, dates, times and confirmation mumbers in one fell swoop. A scenario like this requires a good deal of hand waving to make it seem viable, to say nothing of worthwhile, because it assumes that the agent's time is more valuable than your time. Place that scenario in a real world context - your boss tells you you need to be in Paris (Peoria) at the end of the week, and could you make the arrangements before you go home? You fire up your trusty agent, and run into the following problems:
  • Agents' performance degrades with network growth Upon being given its charge, the agent needs to go out and query all the available sources of travel information, issue the relevant query, digest the returned information and then run the necessary weighting of the results in real time. This is like going to Lycos and asking it to find all the resources related to Unix and then having it start indexing the Web. Forget leaving your computer to make a pot of coffee - you could leave your computer and make a ship in a bottle. One of the critical weaknesses in the idea of mobile agents is that the time taken to run a query improves with processor speed (~2x every 18 months) but degrades with the amount of data to be searched (~2x every 4 months). A back of the envelope calculation comparing Moore's Law vs. traffic patterns at public internet interconnect points suggests that an autonomous agent's performance for real-time requests should suffer by roughly an order of magnitude annually. Even if you make optimistic assumptions about algorithm design and multi-threading and assume that data sources are always accessible, mere network latency in an exploding number sources prohibits real-time queries. The right way to handle this problem is the mundane way - gather and index the material to be queried in advance.
  • Agents ask people to do what machines are good at (waiting) and machines to do what people are good at (thinking). The usual answer to this problem with real-time queries is to assume that people are happy to ask a question hours or days in advance of needing the answer, a scenario that occurs with a frequency of approximately never. People ask questions when they want to know the answer - if they wanted the answer later they would have asked the question later. Agents thus reverse the appropriate division of labor between humans and computers -- in the agent scenario above, humans do the waiting while agents do the thinking. The humans are required to state the problem in terms rigorous enough to be acted on by a machine, and be willing to wait for the answer while the machine applies the heuristics. This is in keeping with the Central Dream of AI, namely that humans can be relegated to a check-off function after the machines have done the thinking. As attractive as this dream might be, it is far from the realm of the possible. When you can have an agent which understands why 8 hours between trains in Paris is better than 4 hours between trains in Frankfurt but 8 hours in Peoria is worse than 4 hours in Fargo, then you can let it do all the work for you, but until then the final step in the process is going to take place in your neural network, not your agent's.
  • Agents make the market for information less efficient This is the biggest problem of all - agents rely on a wrong abstraction of the world. In the agent's world, their particular owner is at the center, and there are a huge number of heterogenous data sources scattered all around, and one agent makes thousands of queries outwards to perform one task. This ignores the fact that the data is neither static nor insensitive to the agent's request. The agent is not just importing information about supply, it is exporting information about demand at the same time, thus changing the very market conditions it is trying to record. The price of a Beanie Baby rises as demand rises since Beanie Babies are an (artificially) limited resource, while the price of bestsellers falls with demand, since bookstores can charge lower prices in return for higher volume. Airline prices are updated thousands of times a day, currency exchange rates are updated tens of thousands of times a day. Net-crawling agents are completely unable to deal with markets for information like these; these kind of problems require the structured data to be at the center, and for a huge number of heterogenous queries to be made inwards towards the centralized data, so that information about supply and demand are all captured in one place, something no autonomous agent can do. Enter The Big Fat Webserver So much of the history of the Internet, and particularly of the Web, has been about decentralization that the idea of distributing processes has become almost reflexive. Because the first decade of the Web has relied on PCs, which are by their very nature decentralized, it is hard to see that much of the Web's effect has been in the opposite direction, towards centralization, and centralization of a particular kind - market-making. The alternative for the autonomous mobile agent is the Big Fat Webserver, and while its superiority as a solution has often been overlooked next to the sexier idea of smart agents, B.F.Ws are A Good Thing for the same reasons markets are A Good Thing - they are the best way of matching supply with demand in real time. What you would really do when Paris (Peoria) beckons is go to Travelocity or some similar B.F.W. for travel planning. Travelocity runs on that unsexiest of hardware (the mainframe) in that unsexiest of architectures (centralized) and because of that, it works well everywhere the agent scenario works badly. You log into Travelocity and ask it a question about plane flights, get an answer right then, and decide.
  • B.F.Ws performance scales with database size, not network size The most important advantage of B.F.Ws over agents is that BFWs acquire and structure the data before a request comes in. Net-crawling agents are asked to identify sources, gather data and then query the results all at once, even though these functions require completely different strategies. By gathering and structuring data in advance, B.F.W.s remove the two biggest obstacles to agent performance before any request is issued.
  • B.F.W.s let computer do what computers are good at (gathering, indexing) and people do what people are good at (querying, deciding). Propaganda to the contrary, when given a result set of sufficiently narrow range (a dozen items, give or take), humans are far better at choosing between different options than agents are. B.F.W.s provide the appropriate division of labor, letting the machine do the coarse-grained sorting, which has mostly to do with excluding the worst options, while letting the humans make the fine-grained choices at the end.
  • B.F.W.s make markets. This is the biggest advantage of B.F.W.s over agents -- databases open to heterogenous requests are markets for information. Information about supply and demand are handled at the same time, and the transaction takes place as close to real time as database processing plus network latency can allow. For the next few years, B.F.W.s are going to be a growth area. They solve the problems previously thought to be in the agents domain, and they solve them better than agents every could. Where the agents make the assumption of a human in the center, facing outward to a heterogenous collection of data which can be gathered asynchronously, B.F.Ws make the asusmption that is more in line with markets (and reality) - a source of data (a market, really) in the center, with a collection of humans facing inwards and making requests in real time. Until someone finda abetter method of matching supply with demand than real-time markets, B.F.W.s are a better answer than agents every time.


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    shirky.com Clay Shirky's Writings About the Internet
    Economics and Culture, Media and Community, Open Source