Permanet, Nearlynet, and Wireless Data
http://www.shirky.com/writings/permanet.html
For most of the past year, on many US airlines, those phones inserted into
the middle seat have borne a label reading "Service Disconnected." Those
labels tell a simple story -- people don't like to make $40 phone calls.
They tell a more complicated one as well, about the economics of
connectivity and about two competing visions for access to our various
networks. One of these visions is the one everyone wants -- ubiquitous and
convenient -- and the other vision is the one we get -- spotty and cobbled
together.
Call the first network "perma-net," a world where connectivity is like
air, where anyone can send or receive data anytime anywhere. Call the
second network "nearly-net", an archipelago of connectivity in an
ocean of disconnection. Everyone wants permanet -- the providers want to
provide it, the customers want to use it, and every few years, someone
announces that they are going to build some version of it. The lesson of
in-flight phones is that nearlynet is better aligned with the
technological, economic, and social forces that help networks actually get
built. The most illustrative failure of permanet is the airphone. The most
spectacular was Iridium. The most expensive will be 3G.